No, Russia is not going to invade Alaska
I cannot see Russia from my home in Anchorage, but a lot of folks are suddenly convinced my home state is about to be invaded by Soviet expansionists. Here is why they’re wrong.
Like any really good conspiracy theory, the notion of a Russian incursion into Alaska is rooted in objective truth — the state is, in fact, an incredibly important United States military asset located mere miles from Russian territory. And were geopolitics identical to a game of “Risk,” the state would indeed be facing grave danger with Russia’s Vladimir Putin now rolling the dice of death in his march through Ukraine.
But war is not a game, and though a cursory glance at a map may give someone the impression Alaska is an easy and desirable strategic objective for a Russian foray onto American turf, that notion is objectively crazier than batshit on a hot tin roof.
To understand why Russia has no interest in Alaska we need to first unwind why this theory is gaining traction in certain online circles. When Putin invaded Ukraine, people immediately began to equate his actions with similar expansionist actions taken in Europe during the build up to the first and second world wars. The conclusion these people leapt to was to speculate about which dominoes would be next to fall — Latvia? Estonia? One elected official from Anchorage even suggested Russian tanks would be rolling through Poland soon.
While these conclusions may have been reached by applying a typical American’s simplistic understanding of European history, they tend to ignore the realities presented by the NATO alliance. And while Putin may believe he can operate with impunity in non-NATO aligned former Soviet states — and so far he’s been able to with only limited reprisals from the West in the form of sanctions — the idea that he would be able to invade a NATO state without incurring the full force of its aligned states severely underestimates American British tastes for needless war. Which is really something, considering it’s the thing we’re most known for.
Putin is willing to cause mass death and suffering — but only to a point. A direct confrontation between the world’s nuclear powers would assuredly lead to a collapse of humanity as we know it, an end to the modern age and the likely destruction of every major city on the planet. This would be bad for everyone, but it would be particularly bad for the world’s billionaires, whose interests this nascent war are being fought for in the first place.
Modern Russia is a borderline failed state due to a strangling web of corruption and crony politics with Putin at the center. As with any dictator, Putin’s power lies only in his projection of strength. By drumming up nationalist sentiment through warped tales of Russian greatness (see his Ukraine invasion speech) and by keeping a literal death grip on dissent, he’s thus far been able to continue ruling with the proverbial iron fist.
But this can only go so far, and it’s clear his brinksmanship is likely leading toward some kind of resolution that ends with a further expansion of Russian influence but not outright territory — a “neutrality” pact with Ukraine that sees his own puppets installed seems one goal at this point. But it’s hard to imagine an end game that sees Russian forces rolling through the streets of Paris. It’s just not going to happen, no matter how many movies you’ve seen.
Which brings us back, finally, to Alaska.
The Ukraine war is horrific and any analysis of the situation must acknowledge the war’s great potential for escalation. It is indeed possible the war could spiral out of control, drag in all the world powers, and result in death on a scale none of us can imagine. That’s a real possibility, but thus far one that remains remote.
Far more remote however is that Putin would decide suddenly to turn his attention to Alaska, a vast, inhospitable region that ranks as perhaps the world’s most well-defended piece of real estate. There are nine military bases in Alaska, a state with fewer people than Seattle. This includes Fort Greely, the home of America’s ballistic missile intercept system. It also includes Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, home to a squadron of F-22 fighters, as well as Eielson Air Force Base near Fairbanks, home to the two squadrons of F-35’s.
Say what you will about the military’s next-generation fighters, but in purely technical terms that’s some serious fucking firepower. And that’s just the tip of the icebox.
Many who engage in Alaska invasion fantasy point to the fact that Alaska was a Russian territory until 1867, a relatively recent year when compared to the centuries of European history that led up to the territory’s “purchase” by the United States for $7.2 million. Without getting too into the weeds about this topic, it’s fair to say this sale was as much an abdication as a transaction between two people who didn’t actually have claim to the land in the first place. At the time of the deal, Russia was failing to hold its territory and would have likely lost Alaska to the British anyway. After a disastrous war in — small world — Crimea, the Russians were essentially in no place to hold onto the territory and figured the Americans were as good a country to give it to as any.
Of course, this simplified history ignores the fact neither the Russians nor Americans had any right to the land, which was already populated by a rich tapestry of indigenous cultures whose history in the land dates back thousands of years.
That said, it’s clear Russia’s claims to Alaska are tenuous at best, and the idea that it’s somehow theirs to retake is historically fanciful and practically false.
The Alaska invasion theory also avoids one key question: How would the Russians even get here? Yes the Bering Strait is just a few miles across, but it’s currently covered in sea ice. There are virtually no roads within 500 miles of the western coast of Alaska, which means unless the Russians are coming by dogsled they’re going to be in for a pretty rough go of things. A sea invasion would be equally problematic. While the North Pacific is likely crawling with Russian submarines, it’s more likely creeping with American ones, which means any hostile ships in the area would probably be in for more than whale watching were Putin to launch this hypothetical invasion.
The whole idea of a Russian invasion starts to seem funny after a while, and many (myself included) have been unable to resist the urge to joke about Russians somehow making their way onto Fourth Avenue in Anchorage.
But frankly, the more you think about the idea of a Russian invasion the more it fails even as a comic device. It just becomes embarrassing. Hypothesizing about war scenarios is something you engage in when you’re not directly threatened by war itself, when you can hold it at arm’s length as an abstract concept rather than a horrific reality.
It’s likely this idea is not going to go away any time soon. The U.S. military is about to begin major (and pre-planned) operations in Alaska, something that it routinely does. However, due to the heightened state of tensions between the U.S. and Russia, you’ll likely see these exercises used as proof of further tensions along the Alaska-Russia border. Don’t believe the hype.
Russia isn’t going to invade Alaska, and fantasizing about such an event only serves to distract from the very real and very sobering truth that there are people at this very minute fighting and dying half the world away from here. Their loved ones will never see them again because of the obsessions and egos of politicians, their children will never again hug them because of the greed of billionaires and the power lust of those lucky few who sit atop the global power structures.
That’s real horror, and it’s unfolding before our eyes — if we’re willing to see it for what it is instead of cosplaying “Red Dawn” like a bunch of middle-schoolers.
If you’re worried about Russia invading Alaska, please turn your attention to the plight of the people who are currently suffering through this tragedy. Learn more about the ongoing conflict, educate yourself about the realities on the ground and make a good-faith effort to contribute to the dialogue without engaging in conspiracy theories based on board games and movies. Alaska will be fine.
The world has enough to worry about right now.
Matt Tunseth is a freelance writer from Anchorage, Alaska who has worked as an editor and reporter at several Alaska newspapers including the (Kenai) Peninsula Clarion, Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman, Alaska Dispatch News, Chugiak-Eagle River Star and Anchorage Daily News.
